Tough Love From Jo

No-one seems to have clear ideas as to what is happening, and will continue to happen to our labor market. But we do know one thing for certain: The labor market is not running out of jobs; it is running out of people whose skills match those jobs. And to drill down even further, the young professionals who are using AI to avoid actually thinking about problems, or don’t really know how to use it to be more productive and efficient, are the ones who will struggle to be attractive to employers. 

Recent global forecasts suggest a net gain of tens of millions of roles by 2030, but also massive disruptions that will significantly change or eliminate roles, and a majority of workers who will need substantial reskilling or upskilling to stay relevant. Employers already report that skills gaps are a primary barrier to adapting. In other words, “Just get a degree” is no longer a plan; it’s a slogan. And it’s old school I’m afraid. Hey, don’t kill the messenger.

If college was reasonably priced, we might tolerate some meandering. It isn’t. Typical annual costs at four‑year institutions now routinely run from the high twenties to well above seventy thousand dollars, depending on whether the school is public or private, whether the student is in‑state and how much aid is given. Multiply that by four, add interest, and many graduates (and their parents) step off the fancy ceremonial stage into a financial headwind, which blows their newly minted $50 decorated cap right off their confident heads.  The math is especially brutal when the degree is only loosely connected to jobs in demand, or when the student never finishes but keeps the debt. Even if parents have saved enough to pay out of pocket, $350,000.00 is still a lot of money. It is. Right?

Over 25 years, I’ve watched hundreds of students and their parents insist on a traditional four‑year path, often letting kids choose colleges based on the weather, the beautiful campuses and so called school spirit, or encouraging their kid attend their own alma mater; rather than the relevancy and quality of their academic programs. At these prices, can we please do better research, because I’m watching them graduate into underemployment or jobs they could have landed without a bachelor’s at all? Over the past 3 years I’ve listened to graduates tell me, “I don’t think I would have gone to college if I had to do it over again.” They may be the miserable victims of the Covid years, and many are, but still, attitudes are shifting. 

If they had asked me, I would likely have suggested they look at all the options. I believe many would have been better served by a targeted apprenticeship, an economy-related technical program, or a structured, intentional community college path, which fit their strengths and lead to clear demand in the labor market. 

Parents, maybe you take the $100K you’d save, put a downpayment on a small apartment for your kid and then say, “I’ll pay for 2 years of community college or a technical program, and then you’re on your own!” 

But Jo, that’s harsh isn’t it? College grads still garner higher wages than non college grads, so surely it’s still worth it? And to that I say, “absolutely, so long as they choose wisely and with a lot of thought and self reflection.” 

For example, an undergraduate degree in biology, psychology, communications, anthropology, sociology, (I could go on), doesn’t qualify you for anything other than underemployment or graduate school. Ouch. That’s tough, Jo, I hear you say. All I’m saying is that you should know that before you choose those majors and others, which I’m happy to chat with you about. 

And what’s wrong with a bit of tough love anyway? You may be grateful you provided them with some wisdom, albeit a little painful at first. 

Parents are starting to read the room. Surveys show declining confidence that a bachelor’s degree is absolutely necessary for success and rising openness to alternatives like apprenticeships, trade schools, and other career and technical education pathways. The cultural story is shifting, slowly, from “college is the only path to success” toward “education is essential, but college is just one of several paths.”

In this context, apprenticeships, trade schools, and focused training programs are not consolation prizes. They are more like specialized runways designed to launch particular kinds of aircraft into specific, in‑demand sectors. When I assess a high school student for natural driving abilities and learn that a) they learn by doing, not by reading, b) they have short time frame orientation, and c) they thrive in chaotic, problem-solving environments, they may be misserved by a vague four‑year degree but well matched to a technical program plus apprenticeship in a skilled trade. Now if you add 5 AP’s and strong SAT scores to that, and they clearly had an engineering brain, I would likely suggest a major in Construction Management vs. Civil Engineering. The difference in program and outcome is night and day. And don’t get me started on the difference in salaries. 

Likewise, emerging fields like AI or cybersecurity often reward precise skill sets that can be built through a mix of degrees, certifications, and intensive training rather than a generic major. 

Launching a young adult into the world is more like plotting a flight path than releasing a balloon. The balloon model says, “Let’s let them drift and trust the winds.” The flight‑path model says, “Let’s understand the aircraft, the fuel, the destination, and the weather before takeoff.” Thoughtful assessment of natural abilities, cognitive strengths, interests, temperament, and real‑world constraints, should anchor decisions about college, alternatives, and timing. And when I do assessments with my clients I also ask about lifestyle desires, values and passions. After all this is the generation of work-life balance we’re discussing here. 

The real question is no longer, “Will my child go to college?” The sharper question is, “Given who this particular human being is, which educational and training path gives them the best odds at attaining competence, contribution, and genuine independence?” When families start there, leaving the nest becomes less a leap of faith and more a well‑planned flight.

My Scary Transition Story

Where did we leave off? Oh yes, I had just lot my job, and signed a mortgage to buy my first house. Not the ideal situation.

A lot of stressful long distance calls later, both to my Dad and my Aunt (and mentor), who, after hearing that I didn’t want to work in corporate anymore and maybe wanted to start my own firm, asked me a lot of tough questions. “Who do you want to help?” “What do you want your role to be?” “Are you ok taking a big pay cut for a few years?” “What about those fancy shoes you love? “Can you handle having your own business and the insecurity it comes with?” “Have you done your homework?” “Are you sure about this?”

The answers came fast and furious but with my Dad’s voice in my head I knew I had to do some market research to see if there was a demand for my ideas. It quickly became apparent that there was clearly a gap that needed to be filled in the career launch market; colleges just weren’t doing a good enough job helping their graduates make successful transitions. I had always enjoyed talking to young adults, so I chose to focus my practice on that demographic, helping them to market themselves and launch into a competitive workforce. (BTW, I’m glad I had the business degree and the marketing background. And having a high risk tolerance also helped, because it was hairy and scary for the first few years!)

My first brand identity, Career Navigation, carried the tagline “Educated. Now What?” – a question faced by so many capable graduates. But the first few years of practice revealed new insights. It wasn’t enough to polish résumés and teach interviewing skills; these bright souls were inundated by competing messages from parents and self-help books: follow your passion, chase the money, honor your parents, lead boldly, save the world. I watched them wrestle with who they truly were, their natural gifts buried under expectations.

My business evolved through pivots and economic storms. I added a college admissions piece to the business because I predicted the cost of higher education would keep rising, and there had to be a better strategy for college than, “they’ll figure it out when they get there.”

Around 2008 and a brutal recession, mid-career professionals started reaching out and said things like, “I wish I had known someone like you when I was trying to figure it out. Do you work with grown ups?” Since then about 30% of my clients are in their 30’s and 40’s and even 50’s. I guess everyone needs some direction at some point in their careers.

Three recessions since 2001 alone has kept my business on its toes—but my philosophy has always circled back to this: youngsters need practical and relevant skills, the autonomy to think for themselves, make mistakes and learn how the world really works. And grown ups need a coach every now and again, to help with transitions and talk to an unbiased 3rd party.

The business has grown and morphed through changing economies and client needs, but the heart of it remains the same: helping people discover who they are and how they add value in a rapidly shifting world. It’s been a great ride, and with this new economy taking shape, I feel like I’m just getting started.